Its Over! Now for Some Answers

In a previous post we mentioned 5 points to watch during this years election cycle in the State of Michigan. Some of the answers to these questions came about explicitly as election night moved along (Obama winning in Michigan, Republicans hanging on to the House Majority) but some questions were not as easily answered.

One of the big questions posed regarded Michigans 6 state ballot proposals ranging from Collective Bargaining Rights to Campaign Finance Reform. How did each proposal fare?

12-1: The Emergency Manager Law
This is basically a referendum stating that in times of crisis, the governor would be allowed to appoint an Emergency Manager to act in place of local government officials in the handling of financial planning, reorganization of government, and emergency asset managemenet.

Yes: 2,044,591
No: 2,251,107

PROPOSAL REJECTED

12-2: Amend Constitution Regarding Collective Bargaining
Give Unions collective bargaining rights. Eliminate current state and local laws disallowing collective bargaining and labor unions.

Yes: 1,837,803
No: 2,531,310

PROPOSAL REJECTED

12-3: Amend Constitution to Establish a Standard for Renewable Energy
Require utility companies to use 25% renewable energy sources by 2025. Dont raise rates on homeowners to compensate for the funding of the project.Encourage use of Michigan made equipment and employment of Michigan Residents.

Yes: 1,622,177
No: 2,733,739

PROPOSAL REJECTED

12-4: Establish Michigan Quality Home Care Council and Provide Collective Bargaining Rights
Allow home caregivers to join and bargain collectively with the MQHCC and esentially become part of their organization/council.

Yes: 1,910,358
No: 2,461,069

PROPOSAL REJECTED

12-5: Limit Enactment of New Taxes by State Government
Expand bases of Taxation (Rasie Taxes).

Yes: 1,344,612
No: 2,970,068

PROPOSAL REJECTED

12-6: Amend Constitution Regarding Construction of International Bridges and Tunnels
Allow for use of state funds to acquire land, design, construct, finance, and promote these projects.

Yes: 1,751,931
No: 2,592,185

PROPOSAL REJECTED

Apparently the people of Michigan dont feel as if these were the right changes to make to their state...

Did Pete Pull the Upset??
No. The Senatorial Battle saw Debbie Stabenow (D) defeating potential dark horse and upset minded Pete Hoekstra (R) by a margin of about 1 Million votes. In other words Mr. Hoekstra got beaten pretty badly.

And What About the Voter Turnout?
Michigan actually saw a decrease in the number of voters that made it to the polls this year. Dropping from 5,039,080 million in 2008 to just 4,772,609 million on Tuesday. That is a 5.28% decrease in voters, something that traditionally should favor the Republican Party/Candidate. One should note that the margin of victory for Obama was lower during this election, but the state still remained blue.



 http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12GEN/  
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Statewide_Bal_Prop_Status_145801_7.pdf
http://www.michigan.gov/

The 5 Point Plan: 5 Things to Watch in Michigan

Election day is finally upon us. No more political advertisements littering the airwaves, no more polls, and No more media banter (well.. less banter). It seems as if the American populous is generally ready for this election to be over, the authors included. But as we lowly citizens sit back in front of our televisions tonight and watch as the votes are tallied, we should take a small amount of pride in the fact that we have just exercised one of the greatest freedoms available to us. Its been a long arduous election that tonight will finally come to a conclusion. We encourage everyone who may be reading this, regardless of party affiliation to get out and cast your vote today.

The Presidential election is just one of many races on the ballot, especially in our state of Michigan. One could almost argue that the more important elections on this ballot come in the form of local ordinances and statewide regional elections. This is something that hopefully all Michigan residents will remember when visiting the polls today.

An online article from Michigan Live highlights the "5 questions to ponder" during this years election.

• Will Michigan's Ballot proposals be approved?
• Will Michigan's Republicans hang on to the State House Majority?
• Will Mitt Romney get a boost from Michigan? 
• Could Pete Hoekstra pull a huge political upset?
• How many people will show up to vote?

These are all pertinent questions that we will be able to answer tomorrow but for now all we can do is sit back and enjoy the last day of what is sure to be a very exciting culmination to this election season.

p.s. - The answer to that third question is almost undoubtedly "no" but in this country anything can happen.

Get Out The Vote!

With the election only two days away, volunteers across Michigan for both political parties have stepped up their game!  It is said that this weekend alone, the GOP has knocked on over 200,000 doors in Michigan and made well over 500,000 phone calls.  People are expecting voter turnout to drop from the 2008 election and as Michigan remains on the edge between a swing state and a democratic state, both parties feel that the "get out the vote" campaigns will really benefit their own parties interests.  The goal is to get people to show up to the polls and vote and these volunteers will be working incredible amounts of hours to make sure people turn out!

Romney Ads Back In Michigan

The Romney campaign has put out a slew of advertisements on gas stations across the state.  Most of these advertisements have been concentrated within Detroit.  Most ads are showing up on the digital screen that most consumers use while filling up their tanks.  The ad criticizes President Obama and his energy policies, trying to show that hopeful Mitt Romney will be able to implement plans that drive the cost of gasoline down.   Although it is unknown just how much the campaign spent on these advertisements, the last minute surge of money to Michigan shows that the Romney camp has not completely given up hopes yet on Michigan.

Pete Hoekstra (Candidate for Senate) Hopeful?

Pete Hoekstra, running against Debbie Stabenow for US Senate has come out to say "the race isn't over."  Many people counted this race out due to the fact that Stabenow has always been up in the polls, and by a pretty large margin- 5-14% at times.  Hoekstra is relying on Romney's possible success in Michigan to poll him out from behind.  He believes that on election day he does in fact still have a chance to win!  The battling between Hoekstra and Stabenow is getting fiercer than it ever has before with both parties drawing in money from super PAC's to advertise for their campaign.  The debate debacle in the beginning of the month (where neither party could agree on the amount or location of possible debates) has brought a lot of negative attention to both candidates campaigns.  With the election day fast approaching- 10 days away - a lot is at stake for these two senate hopefuls.

Obama and Romney Tied in One Michigan Poll

The latest Michigan poll released by Fox News Detroit, conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun has concluded by their results that  President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 47% in the polls. The poll, taken by 1,000 participants had Obama leading by a mere .34%.  Although this poll new poll has shown a drastic shift towards Romney,  most analysts are still calling Michigan a win for Obama, granting the Obama/Biden ticket with Michigan's 16 electoral votes.  As you can see in the upper right hand poll tracker- Real Clear Politics has Obama still ahead of Romney by 4%.  To some, Michigan is believed to have become the latest 'toss up' state in the election race.


http://www.latinospost.com/articles/6034/20121025/michigan-election-poll-2012-obama-romney-tied.htm

State Supreme Court Elections!

Confused?  So are many citizens of Michigan.  One of the main reasons supreme court elections are not in the lime light during an election year is because they are buried at the bottom of the ballot in the non-partisan section underneath all of the ballot proposals taking place in Michigan. Voters will have two choices between 7 candidates to serve full terms (8 years) in the Michigan Supreme Court and the choice between 3 candidates to serve a two year term.  Although the election is 12 days away, both state parties began airing attack ads on the justices whom the opposing party supports.  Although it seems like a short amount of time, 12 days is a long enough period to help the public get exposure to some of these candidates for the first time.   The main concern is that voters will not fill out a complete ballot and fail to recognize which candidates are endorsed by which party, although technically the section is non-partisan.

Ad Spending in Michigan

As we well know the candidates for President of the United States have not been spending much time in Michigan but that surely means that they are putting more money into advertising in the state correct? Wrong. Neither Official Presidential Campaign committee has put any money into advertising in the state since May 1st, potentially earlier. PACs for the Romney Campaign have run a few select ads, while PACs supporting Obama have not put in a single cent. It appears as if this is just another sign that Michigan is slowly descending down the hierarchy of states that matter in presidential elections.

Ad Spending In Michigan - Link to the National Journal website showing advertisement spending in each of the 10 battleground states.

Voter Turnout and Presidential Election Impacts

Michigan has traditionally been a state in which voter turnout is actually slightly higher than that of the national average for presidential elections. In the years since 1972 in which the voter turnout has been 61 % or less, the Republican candidate has won 5 out of 7 possible elections. The 3 elections with the highest voter turnout were all won by the Democratic Candidate. Despite potential setbacks at the polls (Voter ID issues, literacy problems in the inner city) Michigan voters may actually come out in greater number this year because of the support the Federal Government provided in the bailout of the Automobile Industry. This is a state that has recently has been going blue, and one can only imagine that the state will come out in full force to show support for a Federal Government that bailed out their states largest industry.

The figure below shows the percent voter turnout by year based on the total number of registered voters in the state. The bars are colored to indicate the party of the candidate that Michigan constituency voted to elect. Red represents a Republican candidate while Blue represents a Democrat.

No Love for Michigan?

If President Obama has a lead in Michigan, Governor Romney does not seem to care. An article from the Detroit News makes it seem like neither candidate wants anything to do with Michigan. Neither has visited the State since October, and both have cut campaign spending significantly in the state. This is remnant of the 2008 election, in which John McCain essentially conceded Michigan to then Senator Barack Obama.

Is it then that far fetched to believe that this might be a continuing trend in subsequent elections? Michigan has gone "blue" in every election for the past 5 years, but they have also lost population, resulting in decreased electoral votes and therefore decreased importance. If this trend of depopulation continues, Republican candidates may continue to concede this state in future years in an effort to secure the electoral votes of more important swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

Presidential Candidates Skip Michigan    

Michigan Toss Up State?

Maybe Michigan will matter in the presidential race after all!  Detroit Free Press is declaring Michigan a toss up state once again!  Seems surprising since the President had been up in many polls by over 9%.  Real Clear Politics has Obama with 48.8% and Romney at 44.4%.  The ratings come within the margin of error which is around 4.5%.  But after tonight's debates and the discussion of the auto bailout in Detroit, people are expecting the ratings to continue favoring President Obama.

Last Day for Registration in MI!

Tomorrow, Tuesday the 9th is the last day for voter registration in Michigan

Paul Ryan to Speak at Oakland University

The presidential campaign has made it's way back into the great state of Michigan!  Tonight, VP candidate Paul Ryan is set to speak at the Oakland University's Athletic Center in Rochester. Rochester, located about half an hour north of Detroit is home to about 13,000 people but with a student population of 19,000.  Ryan will have a guest at the rally tonight- none other than Kid Rock.  Ryan hopes to garner more support from people in Michigan, showing signs that the Romney campaign hasn't completely thrown Michigan out of contention.

Fleeting in Size, Not in Importance

According to data from the United States Census Bureau retrieved from 270towin.com, Michigan is the only state to have lost population after the 2010 census. What does this mean for the election? With this population decrease Michigan has also seen a decrease in its number of Electoral votes from 17 to 16. This one vote surely should not affect the outcome of the general election in any way, but its important to note that at its peak population throughout the 70's, Michigan controlled 21 electoral votes. If this trend continues and voters who are originally from Michigan continue to move or be displaced, could this eventually lead to the declassification of Michigan as a "swing-state"?


The link below provides access to the 270towin website, a site devoted to visually explaing past voter prends for all of the US States. There are some simple yet very explanatory Maps, Charts, and Tools that all serve as good resources to be used in analysis of these voter trends.

Recent Michigan Voting Trends

Senate Race or Walk?

The high intensity- nail biting- teeth grinding election season has seemed to make its exit from Michigan a couple weeks early!  There are still 6 weeks left to go for most campaigns in the country, but as recent polls are showing, Michigan's fate has already seemed to be decided.  With Obama leading Romney 54% to 42%, the next race people tend to hone in on is the Senate race, although the senate race is proving to be just as lethargic.   Rasmussen has polled the senate race and has Debbie Stabenow the incumbant Senator (D) at 53% and her opponent, Pete Hoekstra at 37%.  This nearly 11% lead has many people believing that the race to the Senate is pretty much over, with Stabenow taking the nomination.

40 days and 40 nights!

40 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION! 

Michigan has increasingly been making its way out of the battleground states.  Rasmussen polls show Obama with a 12% lead on Romney.  The 12% is broken down to Obama-54%, and Romney-42%.  Pollsters have been busy updating their maps with current election rating numbers!  New maps coming out have now completely shaded Michigan blue, excluding it from the now 9 battleground states.  

Electoral College

Obama: 237

Romney: 196

Toss Up: 105

Return of GOP Ads

After Romney's latest political blunder with the leaking of his sentiments towards the "47%", the Romney camp has returned ads to michigan! The ad is the first to run in Michigan since August when major super PACs pulled their money out of the state to concentrate on more contested ones.

View the ad here: Restore America Ad

After a poll conducted last week by EPIC/MRA, Obama is shown to have a 10 point lead over Romney, while CNN/ORC polling shows Obama ahead by 8%

source: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/19/cnn-poll-romney-trailing-in-birth-state/?hpt=po_c1

GOP Losing Hope for Michigan?

Detroit Free Press is reporting that citizens of Michigan can take a breather when it comes to political commercials clogging up their prime time TV viewing.  Backers for the GOP have pulled out nearly all of their ads in Michigan, opening up the once politically clogged airwaves back to standard advertisement commercials.  Obama's campaign has enough confidence in Michigan that they have also pulled advertisements from the area in order to focus on more contested states.  Citizens of Michigan can't be too overly excited yet- although both parties have significantly pulled back advertisements, campaign finance reports suggest that approximately 10 million dollars is left to be spent on pro-Romney advertisements.

Source: http://www.freep.com/article/20120916/NEWS15/309160163/Volume-of-political-ads-in-Michigan-will-be-nowhere-near-where-it-might-have-been-