Pete Hoekstra (Candidate for Senate) Hopeful?

Pete Hoekstra, running against Debbie Stabenow for US Senate has come out to say "the race isn't over."  Many people counted this race out due to the fact that Stabenow has always been up in the polls, and by a pretty large margin- 5-14% at times.  Hoekstra is relying on Romney's possible success in Michigan to poll him out from behind.  He believes that on election day he does in fact still have a chance to win!  The battling between Hoekstra and Stabenow is getting fiercer than it ever has before with both parties drawing in money from super PAC's to advertise for their campaign.  The debate debacle in the beginning of the month (where neither party could agree on the amount or location of possible debates) has brought a lot of negative attention to both candidates campaigns.  With the election day fast approaching- 10 days away - a lot is at stake for these two senate hopefuls.

Obama and Romney Tied in One Michigan Poll

The latest Michigan poll released by Fox News Detroit, conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun has concluded by their results that  President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 47% in the polls. The poll, taken by 1,000 participants had Obama leading by a mere .34%.  Although this poll new poll has shown a drastic shift towards Romney,  most analysts are still calling Michigan a win for Obama, granting the Obama/Biden ticket with Michigan's 16 electoral votes.  As you can see in the upper right hand poll tracker- Real Clear Politics has Obama still ahead of Romney by 4%.  To some, Michigan is believed to have become the latest 'toss up' state in the election race.


http://www.latinospost.com/articles/6034/20121025/michigan-election-poll-2012-obama-romney-tied.htm

State Supreme Court Elections!

Confused?  So are many citizens of Michigan.  One of the main reasons supreme court elections are not in the lime light during an election year is because they are buried at the bottom of the ballot in the non-partisan section underneath all of the ballot proposals taking place in Michigan. Voters will have two choices between 7 candidates to serve full terms (8 years) in the Michigan Supreme Court and the choice between 3 candidates to serve a two year term.  Although the election is 12 days away, both state parties began airing attack ads on the justices whom the opposing party supports.  Although it seems like a short amount of time, 12 days is a long enough period to help the public get exposure to some of these candidates for the first time.   The main concern is that voters will not fill out a complete ballot and fail to recognize which candidates are endorsed by which party, although technically the section is non-partisan.

Ad Spending in Michigan

As we well know the candidates for President of the United States have not been spending much time in Michigan but that surely means that they are putting more money into advertising in the state correct? Wrong. Neither Official Presidential Campaign committee has put any money into advertising in the state since May 1st, potentially earlier. PACs for the Romney Campaign have run a few select ads, while PACs supporting Obama have not put in a single cent. It appears as if this is just another sign that Michigan is slowly descending down the hierarchy of states that matter in presidential elections.

Ad Spending In Michigan - Link to the National Journal website showing advertisement spending in each of the 10 battleground states.

Voter Turnout and Presidential Election Impacts

Michigan has traditionally been a state in which voter turnout is actually slightly higher than that of the national average for presidential elections. In the years since 1972 in which the voter turnout has been 61 % or less, the Republican candidate has won 5 out of 7 possible elections. The 3 elections with the highest voter turnout were all won by the Democratic Candidate. Despite potential setbacks at the polls (Voter ID issues, literacy problems in the inner city) Michigan voters may actually come out in greater number this year because of the support the Federal Government provided in the bailout of the Automobile Industry. This is a state that has recently has been going blue, and one can only imagine that the state will come out in full force to show support for a Federal Government that bailed out their states largest industry.

The figure below shows the percent voter turnout by year based on the total number of registered voters in the state. The bars are colored to indicate the party of the candidate that Michigan constituency voted to elect. Red represents a Republican candidate while Blue represents a Democrat.

No Love for Michigan?

If President Obama has a lead in Michigan, Governor Romney does not seem to care. An article from the Detroit News makes it seem like neither candidate wants anything to do with Michigan. Neither has visited the State since October, and both have cut campaign spending significantly in the state. This is remnant of the 2008 election, in which John McCain essentially conceded Michigan to then Senator Barack Obama.

Is it then that far fetched to believe that this might be a continuing trend in subsequent elections? Michigan has gone "blue" in every election for the past 5 years, but they have also lost population, resulting in decreased electoral votes and therefore decreased importance. If this trend of depopulation continues, Republican candidates may continue to concede this state in future years in an effort to secure the electoral votes of more important swing states such as Florida and Ohio.

Presidential Candidates Skip Michigan    

Michigan Toss Up State?

Maybe Michigan will matter in the presidential race after all!  Detroit Free Press is declaring Michigan a toss up state once again!  Seems surprising since the President had been up in many polls by over 9%.  Real Clear Politics has Obama with 48.8% and Romney at 44.4%.  The ratings come within the margin of error which is around 4.5%.  But after tonight's debates and the discussion of the auto bailout in Detroit, people are expecting the ratings to continue favoring President Obama.

Last Day for Registration in MI!

Tomorrow, Tuesday the 9th is the last day for voter registration in Michigan

Paul Ryan to Speak at Oakland University

The presidential campaign has made it's way back into the great state of Michigan!  Tonight, VP candidate Paul Ryan is set to speak at the Oakland University's Athletic Center in Rochester. Rochester, located about half an hour north of Detroit is home to about 13,000 people but with a student population of 19,000.  Ryan will have a guest at the rally tonight- none other than Kid Rock.  Ryan hopes to garner more support from people in Michigan, showing signs that the Romney campaign hasn't completely thrown Michigan out of contention.

Fleeting in Size, Not in Importance

According to data from the United States Census Bureau retrieved from 270towin.com, Michigan is the only state to have lost population after the 2010 census. What does this mean for the election? With this population decrease Michigan has also seen a decrease in its number of Electoral votes from 17 to 16. This one vote surely should not affect the outcome of the general election in any way, but its important to note that at its peak population throughout the 70's, Michigan controlled 21 electoral votes. If this trend continues and voters who are originally from Michigan continue to move or be displaced, could this eventually lead to the declassification of Michigan as a "swing-state"?


The link below provides access to the 270towin website, a site devoted to visually explaing past voter prends for all of the US States. There are some simple yet very explanatory Maps, Charts, and Tools that all serve as good resources to be used in analysis of these voter trends.

Recent Michigan Voting Trends